Home Prices Rose in 78% of Metros. Tampa’s Median Was $410,000.

Home prices rose in 78 percent of U.S. metro markets in the third quarter of 2026. The National Association of REALTORS® published that quarterly metro report on October 29, 2026. The national median existing single-family home price was $432,900, 1.7 percent above a year earlier. The South region median was $374,900, 1.0 percent higher. Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater printed $410,000, 2.5 percent above third-quarter 2025. Ocala printed $288,600, 0.5 percent higher.

This file is NAR’s quarterly metropolitan median for existing single-family homes. It is not the monthly existing-home sales pace, not the FHFA repeat-sales index, and not Case-Shiller. The October 29 Freddie Mac survey already briefed on this site still prints 7.24 percent on the 30-year fixed and 6.60 percent on the 15-year fixed. Policy context after the October FOMC hold remains 3.75–4.00 percent. Statewide purchase and sale work sits on Florida markets and residential. A written quote starts on the mortgage page.

What the report measures

NAR releases quarterly median single-family prices for about 235 metropolitan statistical areas. The association also publishes a condo series. This briefing uses the single-family metro table dated October 29, 2026, and the accompanying news release. A median is the middle closed price among the homes that sold in that metro during the quarter. It moves when the mix of homes that closed changes, not only when a like-for-like house costs more.

NAR’s own note says the only valid median comparisons are with the same quarter a year earlier, because buying patterns are seasonal. Quarter-to-quarter comparisons do not remove that seasonality. The regional medians — Northeast, Midwest, South, and West — come from a separate sampling that includes rural areas and portions of smaller metros that are not in the metro table. A South region median and a Tampa metro median answer different geography questions.

The release does not print a Hernando County median, a Citrus County median, a Spring Hill median, or a Lecanto median. Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater is the large metro that covers Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, and Hernando for this table. Ocala is the Marion metro. Citrus County is not a separate MSA line in the single-family file.

The national scoreboard

From the October 29 news release:

• Share of metros with rising prices: 78 percent, down from 80 percent in the second quarter.
• Share with declining prices: 21 percent, up from 20 percent.
• Share with double-digit gains: 4 percent, down from 5 percent.
• National median existing single-family price: $432,900, up 1.7 percent year over year — matching the revised second-quarter annual growth rate.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said that even with affordability challenges, home prices continue to set record highs in most parts of the country, and that over the past seven years the average house has appreciated by $146,000. He also said that throughout the last year home prices declined in many Florida markets, and that this quarter homes in nearly all Florida markets are showing price gains.

That Florida sentence is the association’s national commentary. The metro table is where the individual Florida medians sit. Read both. Do not invent a statewide Florida median from the South region line.

Four regions

Median existing single-family prices by region, with year-over-year change, from the news release:

The South is the region that includes Florida. A 1.0 percent South gain is slower than the Northeast and Midwest prints and slower than the national 1.7 percent. The West is the region whose median fell on the year. A Nature Coast buyer still closes on a local contract, not on a regional average.

Florida metros on the single-family table

The single-family workbook prints third-quarter 2026 medians in thousands of dollars. The year-over-year column is the Q3-to-Q3 change. Selected Florida metros:

Every Florida metro on that list is flat or higher than a year earlier on the printed year-over-year column. Sarasota’s 4.3 percent is the strongest gain among the larger Gulf Coast names on the table. Ocala’s 0.5 percent is a small year-over-year step at a $288,600 median. Pensacola and Tallahassee printed 0.0 percent.

The same table also prints earlier quarters. Tampa’s second-quarter 2026 median was $415,000 before the third-quarter $410,000. Miami’s second-quarter median was $659,000 before $660,000. Those quarter steps are useful context. They are not the comparison NAR treats as the valid year-ago test.

Tampa Bay and the Nature Coast read

Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater at $410,000 is the metro line that covers Hernando, Pasco, Hillsborough, and Pinellas in this file. A 2.5 percent year-over-year gain means the middle closed single-family sale in that metro sat higher than in third-quarter 2025, when the table printed $400,000. It does not price a Spring Hill ranch, a Wesley Chapel two-story, a South Tampa bungalow, or a Clearwater condo. Condos are a separate NAR series and a separate Florida Realtors condo briefing on this site.

Hernando’s longer growth tape — population, permits, and the county house-price index — remains the ten-year growth briefing. That file is not this quarter’s metro median. A seller in Brooksville or Spring Hill still starts from the comparable sales that match the house, not from the $410,000 metro middle.

Ocala at $288,600 is the Marion line. Dunnellon’s city-limit population note is a different object: who lives inside the municipal boundary. An Ocala-metro median does not become a Dunnellon asking price.

Citrus County does not appear as its own MSA row. A Homosassa, Inverness, or Lecanto closing is local evidence. The nearest printed medians on this table for a Nature Coast reader are Tampa Bay to the south and Ocala to the east, and neither one is a Crystal River sale.

Affordability lines in the same release

NAR’s affordability block sits next to the metro medians:

• Typical monthly mortgage payment on an existing single-family home with 20 percent down: $2,251 — $48 above last quarter and $69 above last year.
• Share of income spent on that payment, on NAR’s average: 24.1 percent, up from 23.9 percent last quarter and down from 24.5 percent last year.
• Starter-home example: a $368,000 typical starter with 10 percent down carries a $2,208 monthly payment — $46 above last quarter and $67 above last year — or 36.3 percent of income on NAR’s first-time-buyer measure, up from 36.0 percent last quarter and down from 37.0 percent last year.

Those payment figures are NAR’s national affordability arithmetic for the quarter. They are not a quoted rate from a Florida lender and not the Freddie Mac October 29 averages. A household in Tampa Bay still needs a written quote dated after the survey it intends to use.

How this file sits next to other price tapes

Three other official price machines already on this site answer different questions.

The October 27 combined briefing carried FHFA’s August purchase-only House Price Index at +0.3 percent on the month and +2.4 percent on the year, and Case-Shiller’s August national index at +2.1 percent year over year, with Miami +4.2 percent and Tampa −0.4 percent. Case-Shiller’s Tampa year-over-year decline is an August repeat-sales print. NAR’s Tampa +2.5 percent is a third-quarter median of closed existing single-family sales. Same metro name. Different machines. Different months.

Monthly existing-home sales pace and inventory remain on the September existing-home sales briefing: a 3.99 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. A sales pace counts closings. A metro median prices the middle closing. September new-home sales at 676,000 are the separate Census and HUD file in that same October 27 stack.

What a buyer, a seller, and an owner do with it

For a buyer in Hernando, Citrus, Pasco, Hillsborough, Pinellas, or Marion, the useful national facts are the 78 percent share of metros still rising, the South’s $374,900 median, and the Tampa or Ocala line that matches the map. The useful local facts are the house under contract, the inspection, the appraisal, and a written mortgage quote. A $410,000 Tampa metro median does not tell you whether the specific house is priced tightly against its comps. Residential buying is the purchase path. Appraisal format questions for GSE loans sit on the Florida UAD 3.6 briefing.

For a seller, Yun’s line that nearly all Florida markets are showing price gains this quarter is the national commentary. The table’s Florida rows are the evidence behind it. Pricing still starts from the comparable sales and the condition of the house, which is the subject of the pricing guide. Home selling is where that becomes a listing. A metro median that rose 2.5 percent does not require every seller to add 2.5 percent to last year’s ask.

For an owner watching equity, NAR’s seven-year $146,000 average appreciation figure is a national average statement in the release. Equity on one Florida house is the difference between a supportable current value and the basis in that house. The metro median is background. The appraisal or a careful comparative market analysis is the property-level tool.

The through-line

NAR’s third-quarter 2026 metro report put the national existing single-family median at $432,900, up 1.7 percent year over year, with prices up in 78 percent of metros. The South median was $374,900, up 1.0 percent. Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater was $410,000, up 2.5 percent. Ocala was $288,600, up 0.5 percent. Orlando was $446,000, up 0.7 percent. Jacksonville was $405,000, up 1.3 percent. Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach was $660,000, up 3.3 percent. Sarasota was $490,000, up 4.3 percent.

The typical payment NAR prints on a 20-percent-down existing single-family purchase was $2,251, with 24.1 percent of income on its average measure. The coupon already briefed for Florida readers is Freddie Mac’s October 29 survey at 7.24 percent and 6.60 percent. Census’s September construction-spending report and ISM’s October manufacturing report were still on the November 2 morning calendar when this metro file was written up.

Dates already on the calendar

• Freddie Mac PMMS: next weekly survey after October 29 — watch the Thursday noon Eastern print.
• October existing-home sales: NAR, Thursday, November 12, 2026, 10:00 a.m. Eastern.
• October pending home sales: NAR, Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 10:00 a.m. Eastern.
• FOMC minutes of the October 27–28 meeting: Wednesday, November 18, 2026.
• December FOMC with a new Summary of Economic Projections: December 8–9, 2026.

Sources: National Association of REALTORS®, *Home Prices Increased in 78% of Metro Areas in Third Quarter of 2026*, October 29, 2026 (national median existing single-family $432,900, +1.7% year over year; 78% of metros up, 21% down, 4% double-digit gains; Northeast $561,500 +4.0%; Midwest $342,500 +3.6%; South $374,900 +1.0%; West $629,000 −0.6%; typical payment $2,251 with 20% down, +$48 quarter / +$69 year; income share 24.1%; starter example $368,000 with 10% down, payment $2,208, 36.3% of income; Yun comments on seven-year $146,000 average appreciation and Florida markets). NAR *Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes for Metropolitan Areas*, table dated 2026-10-29 (Florida metros as printed: Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater 410.0 / +2.5%; North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton 490.0 / +4.3%; Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach 660.0 / +3.3%; Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island 775.0 / +3.3%; Sebastian–Vero Beach 400.0 / +3.6%; Crestview–Fort Walton Beach–Destin 445.0 / +3.5%; Gainesville 357.5 / +2.1%; Punta Gorda 350.0 / +2.0%; Deltona–Daytona Beach–Ormond Beach 360.0 / +1.4%; Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville 375.0 / +1.4%; Cape Coral–Fort Myers 380.0 / +1.3%; Jacksonville 405.0 / +1.3%; Panama City 369.9 / +1.3%; Port St. Lucie 429.0 / +1.3%; Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford 446.0 / +0.7%; Lakeland–Winter Haven 325.0 / +0.6%; Ocala 288.6 / +0.5%; Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent 334.9 / 0.0%; Tallahassee 345.0 / 0.0%; Tampa 2026.II 415.0; Miami 2026.II 659.0). Method notes in that release: ~235 MSAs; year-ago comparisons only for medians; regional medians from a separate sampling. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 29, 2026, and Federal Reserve October 28, 2026, FOMC statement, only as already briefed on those pages.

For help reading a Hernando, Citrus, Pasco, Hillsborough, Pinellas, or Marion purchase or sale against this metro tape and a current written quote, contact Bridge Point Business & Real Estate Advisors at 352-515-0226 or request a consultation.