14.5% of September Home Contracts Fell Through. Tampa's Share Was 18.8%.

14.5 percent of U.S. homebuying deals that went under contract in September were canceled. That figure is from Redfin's October 12, 2026 report, written by Dana Anderson and updated October 13. Redfin says the share is the highest since the start of the pandemic, and that aside from March and April 2020 it is the highest share on its record. Among the 50 most populous metros, Jacksonville was 19.9 percent. Tampa was 18.8 percent.

This page is that October 12 pending-sales report. The seller-and-buyer count is Redfin's separate release of September 10, and that release covers August: an estimated 57.9 percent more sellers than buyers. NAR's existing-home sales release is a different count of closings.

Pending home sales fell 4 percent from August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the biggest monthly drop in more than three years. They also fell from a year earlier in every one of the 50 largest metros. The last time that happened was September 2023. Redfin ties both months to mortgage rates that stayed above 7 percent.

Florida context stays on Florida markets. A purchase or a sale sits on residential.

The September share

Redfin's headline is a national rate, then a metro ranking. Nationwide, 14.5 percent of homebuying deals that went under contract in September were canceled. The report calls that the highest share since the start of the pandemic, and the highest on record other than March and April 2020.

The same paragraph says buyers are in the driver's seat, and it calls the market the strongest buyer's market on record. When a house hunter has more listings to choose from, a bad inspection, a monthly payment that does not match the worksheet, or a change of mind is enough to send the listing back to active.

The highest cancellation shares among the 50 largest metros, as the report prints them:

• Jacksonville, 19.9 percent. Redfin describes that as one in five deals, and as the highest share in the group.
• Tampa, 18.8 percent.
• Las Vegas, 18.6 percent.
• San Antonio, 18.5 percent.
• Phoenix, 18.4 percent.

The report groups those five as big buyer's markets. The lowest share is San Francisco, at 2.8 percent. Next are Nassau County, New York; San Jose; Montgomery County, Pennsylvania; and New York. The report says each of those four is under 8 percent. The metro table prints Nassau County at 4.8 percent, San Jose at 5.5 percent, Montgomery County at 7.6 percent, and New York at 7.7 percent.

Redfin's July cancellation table, from the report published for July 2026, printed a national share of 14 percent and a Tampa share of 18.0 percent. September is the next step on that same seasonally adjusted series: 14.5 percent nationally, and 18.8 percent in Tampa. Redfin's April 2026 cancellation note says April was the first month of the updated method, and that the figures in that type of report are seasonally adjusted.

What the 14.5 percent is counting

Redfin's data-center methodology says a cancellation is a purchase agreement that ends after the seller has accepted an offer, when the listing moves from pending or contingent back to active and the home is for sale again. The rate divides those cancellations by the homes that went under contract in the same period. The same page says a home that fell out of contract during a given period did not necessarily go under contract in that period. A September cancellation can be a contract that was accepted in August.

Pending sales, in that methodology, are the homes that went under contract during the period. The date is the day the listing is first reported with an accepted offer or as sold. The October 12 report says all figures are seasonally adjusted except median sale price and the mortgage-rate figures.

The 14.5 percent is a share of contracts, not a count of closings, and not a forecast of how many of today's pendings will fail. Redfin also says the series is subject to revision in the cancellation notes that use this method. A later update can move the September share.

Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, and Marion sit outside the 50-metro table. A buyer in Homosassa or Spring Hill uses a local contract, and Tampa's 18.8 percent is the Tampa metro row.

Jacksonville, Tampa, and the rest of the Florida table

The October 12 metro table prints sale price, the year-over-year change in pending sales, closed sales, active listings, and new listings, and the share of deals that fell through. These are the Florida rows in that table.

Jacksonville. Median sale price $372,145, up 2.0 percent from a year earlier. Pending sales down 10.2 percent. Closed sales down 6.2 percent. Active listings down 13.8 percent. New listings down 1.9 percent. Share of deals that fell through: 19.9 percent. The typical home that went under contract did so 9 days faster than a year earlier. Jacksonville has the highest cancellation share in the 50-metro group and one of the three largest drops in active listings. The other two are Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach.

Tampa. Median sale price $369,152, down 0.2 percent from a year earlier. Pending sales down 5.3 percent. Closed sales down 1.1 percent. Active listings up 4.6 percent. New listings down 1.9 percent. Share of deals that fell through: 18.8 percent. Days on market increased 16 days, the largest increase among the metros in the report. Orlando was next, at 12 days, and San Antonio was third, at 8 days. Tampa's listings are up from a year ago, the houses that do go under contract are taking longer, and nearly one in five of those contracts comes back to the market.

Orlando. Median sale price $400,934, down 1.9 percent. Pending sales down 5.5 percent. Closed sales up 3.0 percent, one of the three largest gains in closed sales in the table, with Indianapolis at 3.2 percent and Nassau County at 2.8 percent. Active listings up 6.1 percent. New listings up 4.6 percent. Days on market up 12 days. The cancellation cell in the published table is blank for Orlando, and it is blank for Providence.

Miami. Median sale price $568,694, up 1.6 percent. Pending sales down 2.7 percent. Closed sales down 3.6 percent. Active listings down 12.5 percent. New listings up 1.1 percent. Share of deals that fell through: 16.8 percent.

Fort Lauderdale. Median sale price $453,958, up 0.9 percent. Pending sales down 3.1 percent. Closed sales down 6.5 percent. Active listings down 14.6 percent, the largest drop in the table. New listings up 3.3 percent. Share of deals that fell through: 16.8 percent. The typical home that went under contract did so in 86 days, which was 20 days faster than a year earlier, the biggest decline in days on market among the metros Redfin analyzed.

West Palm Beach. Median sale price $513,820, up 3.8 percent. Pending sales down 2.2 percent, among the three smallest pending-sales declines in the table. Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, was down 1.6 percent, and Pittsburgh was down 2.1 percent. Closed sales down 3.4 percent. Active listings down 13.3 percent. New listings down 3.4 percent. Share of deals that fell through: 12.4 percent. Days on market fell 14 days.

Read those rows as six different markets. Jacksonville and Tampa are the two highest cancellation shares in the country on this table. West Palm Beach's cancellation share, 12.4 percent, sits below the national 14.5 percent, and its pending-sales decline is one of the smallest. Miami and Fort Lauderdale match each other on the cancellation share, 16.8 percent, while both show double-digit drops in active listings.

Pending sales fell in every large metro

Pending sales are the contracts, before the closing. Redfin says U.S. pending home sales in September were the lowest since spring 2014, with the exception of April 2020, when the start of the pandemic stopped the market. The month-to-month decline was 4 percent, seasonally adjusted, and Redfin calls that the biggest monthly drop in more than three years.

The report says fewer homes went under contract largely because mortgage rates rose through the month and were above 7 percent by the end of it. For the first time in three years, pending sales fell from a year earlier in all 50 of the most populous metros. September 2023 was the previous time, and Redfin says that was also the last time mortgage rates stayed above 7 percent for a sustained period.

The largest year-over-year drops were on the West Coast. Seattle was down 24.4 percent. Los Angeles was down 16 percent. San Diego was down 15.8 percent. Anaheim was down 15.5 percent. Redfin says the Southern California metros are among the priciest, so a higher rate prices out buyers who were already on the edge, and it points to Seattle's local job market as a second drag on demand.

The smallest year-over-year drops were Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, down 1.6 percent; Pittsburgh, down 2.1 percent; and West Palm Beach, down 2.2 percent. A small decline is still a decline. The report's point is that no large metro on this list posted a year-over-year gain in pending sales.

Closed sales are the deals that finished. Nationwide they fell 1.6 percent from August, to the lowest level since the end of 2023. Redfin says most of the homes that closed in September had gone under contract in July or August, when rates were already climbing. Closed sales and the cancellation share answer different questions. A closing is a contract that made it through. A cancellation is a contract that went back to active. Tampa's closed sales were down 1.1 percent from a year earlier. Orlando's closed sales were up 3.0 percent. Orlando's cancellation cell is still blank.

Active listings rose 1.2 percent from August, to the highest level since March 2020. New listings ticked up 0.3 percent from August. The report says the supply pool is widening because sellers keep listing while buyers step back, and that new listings are not jumping. The year-over-year active-listing changes are not the same story in every Florida metro. Tampa and Orlando are up. Jacksonville, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach are down, by 13.8, 12.5, 14.6, and 13.3 percent.

The price on the contract

The median U.S. home-sale price was $393,895 in September, up 1.3 percent from a year earlier. Redfin says that is the smallest increase since February. Median sale price in this report is not seasonally adjusted.

Three other price lines in the same report:

• The median asking price fell 0.5 percent from August. From a year earlier it rose 0.6 percent, which Redfin says is the smallest increase since April.
• 60.5 percent of homes that sold in September went for less than their original asking price. Redfin says that continues an 18-month run in which about three in five sales closed under the original ask.
• 19.8 percent of sellers with an active listing dropped the asking price in September. The share of sellers cutting price rose in 43 of the 50 largest metros.

The largest median-price gains from a year earlier were San Francisco, 14.6 percent, Cleveland, 7.9 percent, and St. Louis, 6.7 percent. The largest declines were Seattle, down 4.4 percent, San Jose, down 3.4 percent, and Denver, down 2.6 percent. On the Florida rows, Jacksonville was up 2.0 percent, Miami up 1.6 percent, Fort Lauderdale up 0.9 percent, and West Palm Beach up 3.8 percent. Tampa was down 0.2 percent. Orlando was down 1.9 percent.

A 1.3 percent national sale-price gain is this report's median of sales that closed. It is not the Federal Housing Finance Agency purchase-only index. That index, for July, was up 2.6 percent from a year earlier. The two series, the month, and the method are different. The July index is the separate note, FHFA house prices.

August is the surplus Redfin has published

The October 12 report calls this the strongest buyer's market on record. The surplus percentage in hand is the September 10 release, and the month in that release is August.

Redfin estimated 57.9 percent more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. in August, up from 52.1 percent in July. The bullet at the top of that release rounds the August gap to 58 percent. The body count is 1,534,918 sellers and 972,300 buyers. Sellers were up 3.9 percent from July, which Redfin says is the biggest monthly increase in its records, and the seller count was the highest since the start of 2020. Buyers were up 0.1 percent from July, and July had been the lowest buyer count on record.

Redfin defines a buyer's market as more than 10 percent more sellers than buyers, a seller's market as more than 10 percent fewer sellers than buyers, and the band in between as balanced. In August, 36 of 49 metros it analyzed were buyer's markets. Fort Lauderdale was left out of that analysis for insufficient data. The October 12 pending table does include Fort Lauderdale.

The August ranking of seller surplus, as that release prints it: Nashville 139 percent more sellers than buyers, Miami 138 percent, Houston 131 percent, Orlando 122 percent, Las Vegas 117 percent, San Antonio 116 percent, Austin 115 percent, and Dallas 108 percent. Orlando's surplus rose from 100 percent in July. Miami's fell from 149 percent and was still second in the country. West Palm Beach was 65 percent, down from 81 percent.

Redfin's stated reason for the Florida and Sun Belt surplus is supply from homebuilding, landing in a market where demand has cooled. Its Miami sentence names rising insurance costs, HOA fees, and climate risk as reasons local buyers have pulled back. The Census count of houses started is a different tape, August housing starts.

The August release names five seller's markets: Nassau County, with 28 percent fewer sellers than buyers; Newark, 21 percent fewer; Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, 20 percent fewer; Milwaukee, 18 percent fewer; and San Francisco, 12 percent fewer. The October 12 report points at three of those five, San Francisco, Nassau County, and Montgomery County, as places where a contract is less likely to fall apart, because buyers are competing for fewer listings. San Jose's 5.5 percent cancellation share and New York's 7.7 percent share sit in the low group on the October table.

A payment on the Tampa median

Redfin says the weekly average mortgage rate reached 7.28 percent at the end of September, and it calls that the highest level in three years. Freddie Mac's next weekly survey, taken October 8, printed 7.40 percent on the 30-year and 6.73 percent on the 15-year. That survey is the separate note, the October 8 average.

Principal and interest on a 30-year loan the size of Tampa's September median sale price, $369,152, at 7.28 percent, is $2,525.78 a month. The same loan amount at the October 8 rate of 7.40 percent is $2,555.93, which is $30.15 more each month. Those two figures are the standard mortgage formula on a loan equal to the median sale price. Taxes, insurance, and any down payment sit outside that illustration. On a $300,000 loan the same two rates are $2,052.64 and $2,077.14, which is the illustration already published with the October 8 survey.

Jacksonville's median of $372,145 at 7.28 percent is $2,546.26 of principal and interest, on the same full-price illustration. A buyer who puts money down borrows less than the median. A buyer who is looking at a specific house uses that house's price, not the metro median.

The tax line is separate again. A Florida homestead bill is school mills on one taxable value and non-school mills on another. The worked example, on an Ocala card, is the homestead tax note. The millage is its own line on the household budget.

Before the inspection period ends

A contract that can fall apart is the contract a buyer and a seller should read before the inspection deadline, not after the listing is back to active. The October 12 report says the walk-aways it is seeing come from a problematic inspection, a payment that does not look like the one the buyer expected, or a buyer who changes plans. Those are the three checks.

For a buyer in Tampa or Jacksonville, the metro cancellation share is the background, not the clause in the offer. The offer still has to say what happens if the inspection finds a repair, what the rate lock is, and which costs the seller will pay. Redfin's research head, Chen Zhao, says buyers in this market have room to negotiate price, closing costs, repairs, and sometimes a rate buydown, and that sellers who want a contract to stick should price from the start and use whatever flexibility they have. The Boston agent quoted in the same report tells sellers to price with the current comps and to remove the items a buyer would balk at. That is one agent's advice in one metro. The table is the evidence that sits under it: in Tampa, days on market are up 16 days and 18.8 percent of the deals that went under contract fell through.

For a seller, a price cut after a month on the market is already in the national numbers. Nearly one in five active listings took a cut in September, and about three in five sales closed under the original ask. A listing that comes back to the market after a cancellation carries the days it already accumulated. The report's supply line says some owners are choosing not to list, and some are listing because they need to move. The ones who need to move are the ones writing the concessions.

Bridge Point will walk the contract, the inspection items, and the payment on the house in front of you. Call 352-515-0226 or start at contact.