U.S. House Prices Rose 0.3 Percent in July and 2.6 Percent From a Year Earlier

U.S. house prices rose 0.3 percent in July and 2.6 percent from July 2025 to July 2026. The U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) published that result on September 29, 2026, in the seasonally adjusted monthly purchase-only House Price Index. The previously reported 0.0 percent change from May to June was unrevised. The seasonally adjusted index for the United States stood at 443.5 in July, with January 1991 equal to 100, up from 442.3 in June and 432.4 in July 2025.

FHFA titles the report U.S. House Price Index — September 2026 because September is the publication month. The prices in it are July. This file is the monthly purchase-only index. August new-home sales are the separate Census and HUD release. Florida’s state figure, through the second quarter of 2026, is the separate quarterly purchase-only index published August 25.

A buyer, a seller, or an owner in Hernando, Citrus, Pasco, Hillsborough, or Pinellas reads this as the national repeat-sales tape for July, with the South Atlantic division as the regional line that includes Florida. The house coupon in force is the October 1 Freddie Mac survey: 7.28 percent on the 30-year fixed and 6.60 percent on the 15-year fixed, already briefed with the September jobs release. The policy range after the September 16 FOMC hike is 3.75–4.00 percent. Statewide context stays on Florida markets. A purchase or a sale sits on residential. A written quote starts on the mortgage page.

What the index measures

The flagship FHFA HPI is a weighted repeat-sales index. It follows the same single-family houses across transactions, using seasonally adjusted, purchase-only mortgages acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The monthly workbook labels the series nominal. A 2.6 percent rise is a rise in the price of those houses. It is not a rise after subtracting inflation, and it is not a median sale price.

A median answers a different question: the middle price among houses that sold in a month, whether they sold before or not. A repeat-sales index answers how the price of houses that sold at least twice has changed. A month with more expensive houses in the mix can move a median without a like-for-like house costing more. A month with a quieter mix can move a median the other way. The index is built to hold the house constant. FHFA says the collection uses a transparent weighted repeat-sales method on transaction data that runs back to the mid-1970s, covering all 50 states and more than 400 cities.

The September 29 news release is the national and census-division monthly print. It does not print a Spring Hill, Lecanto, Wesley Chapel, Tampa, or St. Petersburg median, and it does not print a Florida state change for July. The state series is quarterly. The division that contains Florida is the South Atlantic, and that division is in this monthly file.

FHFA also publishes indexes that use refinances, mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration, and county property records. Those are additional series. The 0.3 percent and the 2.6 percent in the news release are the seasonally adjusted purchase-only monthly index. A refinance appraisal and a purchase price are different observations. This headline uses purchases.

The national print

From June to July, the seasonally adjusted U.S. index rose 0.3 percent. From July 2025 to July 2026, it rose 2.6 percent. June’s change from May stayed at 0.0 percent, the same figure FHFA had already reported. The July index level is 443.5. The June level is 442.3. The July 2025 level is 432.4. January 1991 is 100 on this scale, so 443.5 means the national purchase-only index is 343.5 percent above that base. That long climb is the level. The news for this release is the month and the year: three-tenths of a percent, and 2.6 percent.

The path into July, on the same seasonally adjusted U.S. column, is a small sequence rather than a surge. January to February was −0.1 percent. February to March was +0.2 percent. March to April was −0.1 percent. April to May was +0.3 percent. May to June was 0.0 percent. June to July was +0.3 percent. Two of the last six month-to-month changes are small declines, one is flat, and three are gains of 0.2 or 0.3 percent. The year-over-year 2.6 percent is the sum of a year of small months, not one large month.

The next monthly report is scheduled for October 27, 2026, and it will include data through August 2026. That release lands the same day the October FOMC statement is due, in the afternoon of the second meeting day. The index and the statement will still be different documents.

The nine census divisions

Seasonally adjusted monthly changes from June to July ranged from −0.8 percent in the Mountain division to +1.5 percent in the Middle Atlantic division. Twelve-month changes from July 2025 to July 2026 ranged from +0.6 percent in the Mountain division to +6.3 percent in the Middle Atlantic division. Those ranges are the sentence in the news release. The monthly workbook prints each division:

• Middle Atlantic: +1.5 percent on the month, +6.3 percent on the year. July index 421.
• Pacific: +0.6 percent on the month, +0.7 percent on the year. July index 468.6.
• West North Central: +0.4 percent on the month, +2.9 percent on the year. July index 427.9.
• West South Central: +0.4 percent on the month, +1.1 percent on the year. July index 427.3.
• New England: +0.3 percent on the month, +4.1 percent on the year. July index 453.9.
• United States: +0.3 percent on the month, +2.6 percent on the year. July index 443.5.
• East North Central: +0.1 percent on the month, +4.5 percent on the year. July index 383.4.
• South Atlantic: +0.1 percent on the month, +1.8 percent on the year. July index 467.3.
• East South Central: −0.5 percent on the month, +2.4 percent on the year. July index 416.9.
• Mountain: −0.8 percent on the month, +0.6 percent on the year. July index 603.5.

The Mountain division had the weakest month and the weakest year in this print. The Middle Atlantic division had the strongest month and the strongest year. A 1.5 percent month in the Middle Atlantic is five times the national month. A 0.6 percent year in the Mountain division is less than a quarter of the national year. The national 0.3 and 2.6 are averages across divisions that did not move together.

South Atlantic, the division that includes Florida

The South Atlantic census division is Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted purchase-only index for that division rose 0.1 percent from June to July and 1.8 percent from July 2025 to July 2026. The July index level is 467.3. June was 466.7. July 2025 was 458.9.

A 0.1 percent month is a third of the national month. A 1.8 percent year is below the national 2.6 percent. Florida readers live inside a division that appreciated over the year and barely moved over the month, and they live in one state inside a nine-state-and-district group. A 1.8 percent South Atlantic year is not a Hernando year, a Citrus year, or a Pinellas year. It is the division.

June’s South Atlantic change, from May to June, is now −0.6 percent. The previous estimate of that June change was −0.5 percent. The U.S. June change stayed at 0.0 percent. The division’s June was revised a tenth of a point lower. July’s 0.1 percent gain follows that revised decline. From the May index of 469.3 to the July index of 467.3, the division is still a little below its May level. The year-over-year comparison remains up, because July 2025 was 458.9.

The other recent South Atlantic months on the seasonally adjusted sheet: January to February +0.2 percent, February to March +0.4 percent, March to April −0.3 percent, April to May +0.5 percent, May to June −0.6 percent, June to July +0.1 percent. The year is positive. The last two months are a decline and then a tenth of a percent.

Florida in the quarterly file

State house-price indexes in the purchase-only series are quarterly. The state workbook on FHFA’s site runs through the second quarter of 2026. That file belongs to the quarterly report published August 25, 2026. It is not replaced by the July monthly release. A reader who puts the July South Atlantic 1.8 percent next to a Florida percentage needs the quarter and the geography labeled.

Florida’s seasonally adjusted purchase-only index was 547.45 in the second quarter of 2026, with the first quarter of 1991 equal to 100. That is up 0.18 percent from the first quarter of 2026, when the index was 546.49, and up 0.96 percent from the second quarter of 2025, when it was 542.23. From the second quarter of 2021, when the index was 398.23, the five-year change is 37.47 percent. The index level of 547.45 is 447.45 percent above the 1991 first-quarter base of 100.

Ranked on the one-year seasonally adjusted change, Florida is 41 of 51, counting the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Alaska leads that ranking at 8.30 percent. New Mexico is last at −1.25 percent. Inside the South Atlantic states on the same quarterly file, South Carolina’s one-year change is 2.38 percent, Georgia’s is 1.90 percent, and North Carolina’s is 0.41 percent. Florida’s 0.96 percent sits between Georgia and North Carolina on that one-year list. Those are second-quarter changes through June, not the July monthly division change.

A 0.96 percent Florida year and a 1.8 percent South Atlantic year can both be the official figures. One ends in the second quarter and covers one state. The other ends in July and covers the whole division. A closed sale on a street in Brooksville, Lecanto, Wesley Chapel, Tampa, or Clearwater is a third number, the price on that contract. The index does not print it.

Seasonally adjusted, and not adjusted

The news release headline is seasonally adjusted. The companion monthly workbook prints the same purchase-only index without seasonal adjustment. From June to July, the not-seasonally-adjusted U.S. index fell 0.1 percent. The South Atlantic not-seasonally-adjusted index fell 0.2 percent. Over twelve months, the not-seasonally-adjusted U.S. change is still 2.6 percent, and the South Atlantic change is still 1.8 percent. The year matches. The month does not.

July’s raw national index dipped a tenth of a percent, and the seasonally adjusted index rose three-tenths. FHFA’s published sentence uses the adjusted figure. A reader who opens the unadjusted sheet and sees a minus sign is looking at the same month before the seasonal factor. Both numbers are in the monthly release. The 0.3 percent in the headline is the adjusted one.

Seasonal adjustment is a statistical step, not a statement that a particular house rose in July. A contract signed in July still has the price on the contract. The index says how the repeat-sales sample moved after FHFA’s seasonal factor, and how it moved before that factor.

An index, a sales count, and a paycheck

Three other official files sit next to this one, and each one counts a different object.

August new-home sales, Census and HUD release CB26-155, put the seasonally adjusted annual rate at 684,000, with a median price of $393,700 and an average price of $478,700. That median is the middle price of new single-family houses sold in the national sample. The FHFA index is the change in price for existing houses that sold again and were financed with enterprise purchase mortgages. A new house with one sale cannot yet be a repeat sale. The 684,000 and the 0.3 percent can both be true in neighboring months because they are not the same event.

August housing starts were a 1,275,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, with single-family starts at 918,000. A start is ground broken. A repeat sale is a house that already existed and changed hands again. July’s price index does not say how many foundations were poured in August.

NAR’s August existing-home sales, in the resale comparison, were a 3.98 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, with 1.62 million homes for sale and a 4.9-month supply. That is a count of resale contracts and a count of listings. The FHFA index is a price change for the houses in its repeat-sales sample. A 4.9-month supply and a 0.3 percent July price change describe different facts about the resale market. Adding them does not produce a local months’ supply or a local appreciation rate.

The September employment situation reported payrolls up 29,000 and unemployment at 4.2 percent, with average hourly earnings of $37.81, up 3.0 percent over the year. A paycheck and a house-price index are the two sides of a payment. The 3.0 percent earnings gain and the 2.6 percent house-price gain are national nominal changes over their own twelve-month windows. They are not a local affordability ratio, and this release does not compute one.

August shelter inflation is the separate CPI briefing. Shelter in the consumer price index and a repeat-sales house-price index use different samples and different methods. The HPI workbook’s nominal label means the 2.6 percent is not already net of that CPI.

Who bought the houses

The price index says how repeat-sale prices moved. It does not say who the buyer was. Cotality’s investor series counts arm’s-length purchases of single-family houses and townhomes, and it calls a buyer an investor when that buyer already owns three or more properties. Cotality’s September 24, 2026 note puts mega-investors, those who own 1,000 or more homes, at 2.2 percent of single-family purchases in August. Their purchase share had fallen to 1.4 percent in February, after proposed restrictions on institutional buyers. Cotality reads the August rebound as a return once the ROAD to 21st Century Housing Act was law.

That 2.2 percent is a share of August purchases by the largest owners. It is not the FHFA index, and it is not the share of all investors. Cotality’s September 3 release, covering March through June, put all investors at 27 percent of U.S. single-family purchases, down from 28 percent at the close of the first quarter. Cotality says that dip fits the usual summer pattern, when owner-occupants are a larger part of the season. The volume line is the sharper one. Investors completed about 273,000 purchases in the second quarter, roughly 40,000 fewer than in the second quarter of 2025. Mega-investors accounted for about 10,000 of that decline. Owner-occupant purchases fell by about 70,000 from a year earlier. Set against the second-quarter averages of 2020 through 2022, investor transactions were down 12 percent, and owner-occupant transactions were down 40 percent.

The same September 3 release splits the year-over-year volume change by size, measured against early 2025:

• Mega investors, 1,000 or more properties: about 4,500 purchases a month in the first quarter of 2026, 40 percent below the first quarter of 2025.
• Large investors, 100 to 999 properties: acquisition volume down 21 percent.
• Medium investors, 10 to 99 properties: purchases down 17 percent.
• Small investors, 3 to 9 properties: volume down 3 percent.

Small owners are the bulk of the investor file. The mega-investor share can move from 1.4 percent to 2.2 percent and still be a thin slice of all purchases. A buyer who loses a Saturday offer to a cash bid is often facing a local owner of a few houses, not a portfolio of a thousand. Cotality’s indicator records that the buyer owns three or more properties. It does not say whether the house will be rented, resold, or occupied.

Cotality dates the 21st Century Road to Housing Act to July 11, 2026. The September 3 release describes it as a limit on single-family acquisitions by entities that own 350 or more homes, and it says the pullback showed up in January, when the measure was introduced, ahead of the signature. Cotality points to statutory exemptions for transfers between investors and for properties that receive substantial improvements, and it treats the third quarter as the test of whether institutional buyers stay in once those rules are clear. The August share of 2.2 percent is Cotality’s first published reading after that signature. It is one month.

The geography in the January-through-June file is not a Florida county. Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta rank highest in both investor and non-investor purchases, with Phoenix and Los Angeles next. The five states with the highest investor share are Georgia, California, New Mexico, Kansas, and Texas. Florida is outside that list. A 2.2 percent national mega-investor share is not a Spring Hill share, a Lecanto share, or a Wesley Chapel share. A Hernando, Citrus, Pasco, Hillsborough, or Pinellas offer is still the contract on that house.

The mortgage survey beside the index

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey released October 1, 2026 put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.28 percent, up from 7.03 percent the prior week, and the 15-year fixed at 6.60 percent, up from 6.42 percent. A year earlier the 30-year averaged 6.34 percent and the 15-year averaged 5.55 percent. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, on that release: “With mortgage rates on their current trajectory, the housing market continues to be supported by favorable economic conditions.” The survey covers conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home-purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. The September 24 briefing is the prior week, at 7.03 percent and 6.42 percent.

July’s price index and October’s mortgage survey are different months. A house that sold in July was financed, if it was in this index, at whatever coupon that purchase closed on. A buyer writing an offer this week is using a quote dated after the October 1 survey. The index says what happened to repeat-sale prices in July. The survey says what the national purchase-mortgage average was for the week published October 1.

Principal and interest on a stated loan use the standard fully amortizing formula. Taxes, insurance, and association dues sit outside these figures. The comparison is the October 1 survey against the September 24 survey.

• $300,000 for 30 years: $2,052.64 at 7.28 percent, and $2,001.96 at 7.03 percent, a difference of $50.68 a month.
• $400,000 for 30 years: $2,736.85 at 7.28 percent, and $2,669.27 at 7.03 percent, a difference of $67.58 a month.
• $300,000 for 15 years: $2,629.84 at 6.60 percent, and $2,600.15 at 6.42 percent, a difference of $29.69 a month.
• $400,000 for 15 years: $3,506.46 at 6.60 percent, and $3,466.86 at 6.42 percent, a difference of $39.60 a month.

A 0.3 percent July price change on a $300,000 repeat-sale illustration is about $900 of price. The same week’s mortgage move, on a $300,000 30-year principal, is $50.68 a month. Those two dollars measure different things, a past price change and a current payment difference. Neither one is the price of a named house. A lender’s quote on a specific house, credit file, and down payment can differ from the survey average. That quote starts on the mortgage page. An appraisal ordered for the loan starts on the appraisal page.

The federal funds target range remains 3.75–4.00 percent. The 30-year survey average is 7.28 percent. The funds rate and the mortgage rate are different prices. The Committee meets October 27–28. That meeting does not include a new Summary of Economic Projections. The July price index will already be six weeks old by then, and the August index is scheduled for the morning of October 27.

What a buyer, a seller, and an owner do with 0.3 percent

A buyer uses the 0.3 percent national month and the 1.8 percent South Atlantic year as the backdrop for how repeat-sale prices were moving, and uses the written quote for the payment. A 2.6 percent national year does not say the house on Saturday’s list is 2.6 percent above last July. The comps on that street do. Cotality’s August figure, mega-investors at 2.2 percent of single-family purchases, is the national backdrop for how large that slice of the buyer pool was. The offer in front of the buyer is still one house. The Florida home buying guide is the purchase process. Residential buying is where a specific address gets read against the quote.

A seller reads the same pair from the other side of the table. The South Atlantic index is up on the year and nearly flat on the month. A list price set on a spring payment, or on the September 24 survey at 7.03 percent, is using an older coupon than the October 1 survey at 7.28 percent. The pricing strategy guide is the sale process. Home selling is the service page.

An owner who is staying put still has the level and the year. The national index is 443.5. The South Atlantic index is 467.3. Florida’s quarterly index is 547.45. Those three levels use a 1991 base, and the Florida figure is a quarterly series, so they are not three readings of one house. An owner’s equity question is the note, the current payoff, and a current value on that parcel. Amendment 3 is the November 3 ballot measure on the non-school homestead exemption and the non-homestead assessment cap. Assessed value and a repeat-sales index are different objects. A cap limits how fast assessed value may rise. The HPI describes transaction prices in the enterprise purchase sample.

The Census ACS 2020–2024 median owner-occupied value for Citrus County, $245,500, is the figure already printed in the Citrus population briefing. It is a multi-year value. It is not the July HPI, and it is not a 2026 contract price. Florida building permits in the August permits briefing are an authorization count. An authorization is not a repeat sale.

The through-line

The seasonally adjusted purchase-only House Price Index rose 0.3 percent from June to July and 2.6 percent from July 2025 to July 2026. June’s U.S. change stayed at 0.0 percent. The U.S. index is 443.5, January 1991 equals 100. Across the nine census divisions, the month ran from −0.8 percent in the Mountain division to +1.5 percent in the Middle Atlantic division, and the year ran from +0.6 percent to +6.3 percent in those same divisions.

The South Atlantic division, including Florida, rose 0.1 percent on the month and 1.8 percent on the year. Its July index is 467.3. Not seasonally adjusted, the U.S. index fell 0.1 percent on the month and the South Atlantic index fell 0.2 percent, while both twelve-month changes match the adjusted year: 2.6 percent and 1.8 percent.

Florida’s own purchase-only index is quarterly. In the second quarter of 2026 it was 547.45, up 0.18 percent on the quarter and 0.96 percent on the year, rank 41 of 51 on that one-year change. Cotality’s separate purchase-count puts mega-investors at 2.2 percent of single-family purchases in August, up from 1.4 percent in February, while all investors were 27 percent of purchases from March through June. The 30-year fixed in the October 1 Freddie Mac survey is 7.28 percent, and the 15-year is 6.60 percent. The next HPI report, with monthly data through August, is scheduled for October 27, 2026.

Dates already on the calendar

• FOMC minutes of the September 15–16 meeting: Wednesday, October 7, 2026, 2:00 p.m. Eastern.
• Freddie Mac PMMS: Thursday, October 8, 2026. The October 1 survey, at 7.28 percent and 6.60 percent, is the weekly average in force until that release.
• Consumer Price Index for September: Wednesday, October 14, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
• September housing starts: Census and HUD, Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
• FOMC meeting: October 27–28. The statement is due at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on October 28. That meeting does not include a new Summary of Economic Projections.
• FHFA House Price Index, monthly data through August 2026: Tuesday, October 27, 2026.

Sources: U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA), news release “FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3 Percent in July; Up 2.6 Percent from Last Year,” September 29, 2026 (U.S. seasonally adjusted purchase-only index up 0.3 percent on the month and 2.6 percent from July 2025 to July 2026; June’s previously reported 0.0 percent change unrevised; nine-division monthly range from −0.8 percent in the Mountain division to +1.5 percent in the Middle Atlantic division; twelve-month range from +0.6 percent in the Mountain division to +6.3 percent in the Middle Atlantic division; flagship index described as seasonally adjusted, purchase-only data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; next release October 27, 2026, with monthly data through August 2026), and the report page U.S. House Price Index — September 2026, published September 29, 2026. FHFA monthly purchase-only workbook, seasonally adjusted, “Monthly Price Change Estimates for U.S. and Census Divisions,” latest month July 2026 (U.S. June-to-July +0.3 percent, index 443.5, June index 442.3, July 2025 index 432.4, January 1991 = 100; division June-to-July and July-to-July changes and July index levels as listed above; South Atlantic June-to-July +0.1 percent, twelve-month +1.8 percent, July index 467.3, June index 466.7, May index 469.3, July 2025 index 458.9; June South Atlantic change −0.6 percent against a previous estimate of −0.5 percent; U.S. month-to-month path from January–February through May–June). FHFA monthly purchase-only workbook, not seasonally adjusted (U.S. June-to-July −0.1 percent and twelve-month +2.6 percent; South Atlantic June-to-July −0.2 percent and twelve-month +1.8 percent). FHFA purchase-only state workbook through 2026 Q2, seasonally adjusted index, 1991 Q1 = 100 (Florida 547.45 in 2026 Q2, 546.49 in 2026 Q1, 542.23 in 2025 Q2, 398.23 in 2021 Q2; one-quarter change 0.18 percent; one-year change 0.96 percent; five-year change 37.47 percent; rank 41 of 51 on the one-year change; South Carolina 2.38 percent, Georgia 1.90 percent, North Carolina 0.41 percent, Alaska 8.30 percent, New Mexico −1.25 percent). FHFA HPI release calendar (monthly index for July 2026 on September 29, 2026; monthly index for August 2026 on October 27, 2026; quarterly report dated August 25, 2026). South Atlantic membership as published with the FHFA census-division series: Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, averages as of October 1, 2026 (30-year 7.28 percent, up from 7.03 percent; 15-year 6.60 percent, up from 6.42 percent; year-ago 6.34 percent and 5.55 percent; Sam Khater’s comment), GlobeNewswire, October 1, 2026. Board of Governors, FOMC statement of September 16, 2026, for the 3.75–4.00 percent target range, and the FOMC calendar for October 27–28. Census/HUD new residential sales and construction, and BLS Employment Situation, only as already briefed on those pages. Cotality, “10 things to know about the property market: September 2026,” September 24, 2026 (mega-investors, owners of 1,000 or more homes, at a 1.4 percent purchase share in February and 2.2 percent of single-family purchases in August, after passage of the ROAD to 21st Century Housing Act). Cotality, “Institutional investors pullback ahead of new housing restrictions,” September 3, 2026 (investors at 27 percent of U.S. single-family purchases from March to June 2026, down from 28 percent at the close of the first quarter; about 273,000 second-quarter investor purchases, roughly 40,000 fewer than the second quarter of 2025, with mega-investors about 10,000 of that decline; owner-occupant purchases about 70,000 fewer than a year earlier; investor transactions 12 percent below, and owner-occupant transactions 40 percent below, the second-quarter averages of 2020–2022; mega-investors about 4,500 purchases a month in the first quarter of 2026, 40 percent below the first quarter of 2025; large investors down 21 percent, medium investors down 17 percent, small investors down 3 percent; the 21st Century Road to Housing Act signed July 11, 2026, described as restricting single-family acquisitions by entities owning 350 or more homes, with exemptions cited for inter-investor transfers and properties that receive substantial improvements; Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta the top metros for investor and non-investor purchases in January–June, then Phoenix and Los Angeles; highest investor-share states Georgia, California, New Mexico, Kansas, and Texas). Cotality’s methodology on that release: an investor owns three or more properties; small is fewer than 10, medium fewer than 100, large fewer than 1,000, and mega more than 1,000; the series counts arm’s-length purchases of detached houses and townhomes and does not judge how the property will be used.

For help reading a Hernando, Citrus, Pasco, Hillsborough, or Pinellas purchase or sale against this price index and a current written quote, contact Bridge Point Business & Real Estate Advisors at 352-515-0226 or request a consultation.