U.S. Real Estate Sales: August 2026 vs July 2026 vs August 2025

There is enough data for a useful August snapshot, but not for an official “August 2026 closed-sales” scoreboard.

NAR existing-home sales for August are due September 10. Census new-home sales and housing starts for August land mid-to-late September. MSCI/RCA commercial sales for August usually follow in the second half of September. What we have today is July’s official print, last August’s official print, weekly listing and pending data through late August, and mortgage rates through August 27.

This article uses those layers and labels them clearly. It is a national tape, not a Nature Coast closed-sale count. For how that tape shows up locally, keep the Florida home buying guide, the Pasco County market overview, and the Hernando County market update in the same reading list.

Summer 2026 did not produce a breakout. Residential sales stayed stuck near 4 million a year. Prices kept rising slowly. Inventory stopped shrinking the way it did last year. Commercial volume looked explosive in July — until you take data centers out.

Mortgage rates tell the affordability story. The 30-year fixed was 6.66% on August 27, 2026, versus 6.56% at the end of August 2025 and 6.66% at the end of July. Buyers did not get a rate gift this August.

Is There Enough Data Yet?

Official August closed-sale counts are not out. Directional data is.

• NAR existing-home closed sales — August 2026 official: no (due September 10). Best available now: July official plus weekly pending and listings.
• Census new-home sales — August official: no (around September 25). Best available now: July official.
• Housing starts / permits — August official: no (September 17). Best available now: July official.
• Case-Shiller prices — August official: no (lags about two months). Best available now: June.
• Freddie Mac mortgage rates — Weekly series is current through August 27.
• Redfin / Realtor.com listings — Weekly series through August 22–23.
• MSCI RCA commercial sales — August official: no. Best available now: July official and first-half 2026.

So: yes for direction, no for a certified August closings total.

Residential: The Scoreboard

Read the columns as three different layers. August 2025 and July 2026 are official NAR, Census, or HUD prints. August 2026 is a weekly proxy, not a closed-sale total. Redfin’s median sale price is a different sample than NAR’s existing-home median. Use the direction, not a dollar-for-dollar compare.

Existing-home sales (SAAR)

• August 2025 (official): 4.00 million
• July 2026 (official): 4.06 million
• August 2026 (proxy): not out; weekly pending down

Versus the prior month

• August 2025: −0.2%
• July 2026: −1.7%
• August 2026: Redfin pending −1.1% in the week of August 23

Versus a year earlier

• August 2025: +1.8%
• July 2026: +0.7%
• August 2026: Redfin pending −3.1% year over year

Median existing-home price

• August 2025 (NAR): $422,600
• July 2026 (NAR): $434,100
• August 2026 (Redfin median sale): $400,649, +1.9% year over year — different sample

Inventory and supply

• August 2025 (NAR): 1.53 million homes; 4.6 months of supply
• July 2026 (NAR): 1.54 million homes; 4.6 months of supply
• August 2026: Realtor.com active listings 1.14 million, +4.0% year over year; Redfin months of supply 3.8 (different method)

Days on market

• August 2025 (NAR): 31
• July 2026 (NAR): 29
• August 2026: Realtor.com 60; Redfin 44 — again, different methods

30-year mortgage

• Late August 2025: about 6.56–6.63%
• Late July 2026: about 6.49–6.66%
• August 27, 2026: 6.66%

New construction (official July only)

• New-home sales (SAAR), July 2026: 607,000 (−10.5% month over month, −6.3% year over year). August not out.
• Housing starts, July 2026: 1.239 million (−12.4% month over month, −13.5% year over year). August not out.

What July Official Data Says

Existing-home sales slipped to a 4.06 million annual pace in July, down 1.7% from June, up only 0.7% from July 2025. That is a four-month streak of tiny year-over-year gains — not a recovery to the old 5 million-plus run rate. Median price hit $434,100, up 2.0% from a year earlier, the 37th straight annual increase. Inventory was 1.54 million homes, a 4.6-month supply, basically balanced. Homes sold in 29 days. Cash buyers were 26% of sales, down from 31% in July 2025. First-time buyers were 29%.

The South, the country’s largest market, fell 3.1% in July. The Midwest fell 2.0%. The Northeast rose 2.0%. The West was flat. That South print matters for Florida readers. A national 4.06 million pace is not the same as a Wesley Chapel Saturday or a U.S. 19 listing week, but a softer South is the regional backdrop for Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus.

New construction had a worse July. New-home sales dropped 10.5% to 607,000. Months of supply jumped to 9.6. Median new-home price was $393,800, slightly below a year earlier. Housing starts fell 12.4% to 1.24 million, 13.5% under July 2025. Permits rose 5% to about 1.43 million, so builders are approving more than they are starting. That is a caution flag, not a boom. If you are comparing a resale in Trinity or Spring Hill with a still-building master plan, that 9.6-month new-home supply is the national reason builders have more room to negotiate than they did when the tape was tighter.

What August Weekly Data Adds

Closed August sales are not published. Contracts and listings are.

Redfin, four weeks ending August 23:

• Pending sales −3.1% year over year, lowest since February
• New listings +6% year over year, highest since April
• Active listings +1.6%
• 20.8% of listings had a price cut
• Homes sold at 98.8% of list; 26.3% sold above list
• Median sale price +1.9% year over year to $400,649

Realtor.com, week ending August 22:

• Active inventory 1.14 million, +4.0% year over year, highest since December 2019
• Median list price $420,000, −2.1% year over year
• Time on market 60 days, one day faster than a year earlier

Read those together: more homes on the market, fewer buyers signing contracts, asking prices easing, closed prices still up a little. That is a late-summer cooling, not a crash. It also lines up with Realtor.com’s own July warning that August would show whether this was normal seasonality or the start of a stall. The weekly pending drop says demand softened. Inventory rising into Labor Day says sellers are still coming out.

For a Florida seller, that national mix is a reminder to price to current comps, not to last summer’s asking tape. See the pricing strategy guide before a list price assumes 2025’s inventory surge is still the whole story.

August 2026 vs August 2025

Last August, existing-home sales were 4.00 million, inventory was rebuilding fast (+11.7% year over year), and the median price was $422,600. Mortgage rates were drifting down toward 6.56%.

This August, rates are about 10 basis points higher than late August 2025. List prices are lower than a year ago on Realtor.com. Closed prices in July were still $11,500 above last August’s median. Inventory is no longer surging double digits; NAR’s July stock was actually down 0.6% from a year earlier. The 2025 story was “more listings arriving.” The 2026 story is “listings are up on the weekly tape, but closed sales are not accelerating.”

Pending sales are the tell. NAR’s July pending index was 71.2, down 1.8% from June and 0.7% from July 2025. Redfin’s August pending reading is worse year over year. Unless September contracts rebound, official August existing-home sales will likely print close to July — around 4.0 million — not a breakout.

Commercial: July Was a Headline Month. August Is Still a Blank.

There is no official August 2026 CRE sales total as of August 31. MSCI’s July Capital Trends report is the last full month. Local corridor work still belongs in the Pasco commercial overview, the Pasco selling commercial guide, and the Hernando commercial overview — those streets do not trade like a national data-center tape.

July 2026 vs July 2025

MSCI recorded $74.4 billion of U.S. commercial sales in July 2026, the strongest July since 2005, up 78% from a year earlier. Trailing-12-month volume is $654 billion, +34%.

Almost all of that July spike is one sector:

• Data centers: $33.8 billion, nearly half of July volume, +1,911% year over year
• The BlackRock GIP / MGX purchase of Aligned Data Centers (about $40 billion enterprise) dominated the tape
• Ex-data centers, July volume was only +1% year over year

That is the sentence that matters. Traditional CRE did not suddenly double.

Sector direction, July 2026 vs July 2025

• Data centers — +1,911%
• Portfolio / entity deals — +376%
• Hotels — +61%
• Senior housing — +55%
• Urban office — +48%
• Suburban office — +28%
• Industrial — flat, about $9 billion
• Apartments — −16%
• Retail — −13%

Average cap rate on July trades: 6.89%, up 6 basis points from June. Hotels cleared around 8.3%.

First-half 2026 context from Avison Young / MSCI: U.S. investment sales $233.6 billion, +14.7% versus first-half 2025’s $203.7 billion. The second quarter was $136.6 billion, +14% year over year, but a lot of that was portfolios and entity deals, not a flood of single buildings. Apartments were roughly flat in the second quarter after a weaker July. Office is bouncing off the bottom, not back to 2019.

How to read August commercial from here

August CRE volume will not look like July unless another mega data-center or take-private prints. July 2025 itself was a slower month on major property types (Colliers then put “major asset class” volume near $26.5 billion, −10% year over year). The honest 2026 comparison is:

• Core CRE (apartments, industrial, retail, ordinary office): sideways to slightly up versus 2025
• Infrastructure / data centers / entity deals: a different market
• Pricing: RCA CPPI all-property prices were only about +0.9% year over year into mid-2026. Apartment prices were still down on a year-over-year basis in June. Volume can rise while values barely move.

If you own or are selling an ordinary west-Pasco building, that July headline is not your bid. Price the corridor you have. The U.S. 19 commercial guide and the downtown New Port Richey commercial guide are the local files.

The Through-Line

Residential and commercial are rhyming.

Both have higher headline dollars than 2025 in places, and both are narrow. Home prices are up about 2%. Home sales are not. Commercial volume is up a lot only because AI real estate cleared a $30 billion-plus check in July. Strip that out and you are looking at a 1% year-over-year month.

Rates are the shared constraint. The 30-year mortgage ended August near 6.66%, a touch higher than late August 2025. Cap rates on CRE drifted up, not down. Nobody is getting 2021 math.

For buyers: more listings, more price cuts, more room to negotiate than last August — especially in the South and on new construction, where supply is 9.6 months. For sellers of ordinary homes and ordinary commercial buildings: this is not a bidding-war tape. Price to the market or sit. For anyone watching data centers, hotels, and senior housing: that is where the money actually moved.

Bridge Point’s residential buying, home selling, buying commercial, and selling commercial pages are the service layer when you want a property-level read instead of a national headline.

What to Watch Next

• September 10: NAR August existing-home sales — printed at 3.98 million. The September 11 briefing has the official close plus the jobs, Beige Book, CRE, JOLTS, office, and foreclosure tape around it.
• September 17: August housing starts and permits
• Late September: Census new-home sales and MSCI August CRE volume

Official August existing-home sales came in below 4.0 million, with pending still soft year over year. That keeps the “slow sales, still-rising prices” story intact. If CRE August prints anywhere near $74 billion without another data-center whale, the recovery is broader than July suggested. As of this snapshot’s original date, that CRE print did not exist.

Sources: NAR Existing-Home Sales (July 2026, August 2025); Census/HUD New Residential Sales and Construction (July 2026); Freddie Mac PMMS; Redfin weekly (week ending August 23, 2026); Realtor.com weekly (week ending August 22, 2026); MSCI Real Capital Analytics / Bisnow / The Real Deal (July 2026 CRE); Avison Young first-half 2026 investment sales.

For help reading this tape against a specific house, storefront, or building in Hernando, Citrus, or Pasco County, contact Bridge Point Business & Real Estate Advisors at 352-515-0226 or request a consultation.