New Homes Sold for $205 a Square Foot in July. Existing Homes Sold for $212.

Newly built homes sold for a median of $205 per square foot in July 2026, and existing homes sold for a median of $212. The gap is $7 a square foot. Zillow published that comparison on September 29, 2026. In the Tampa metro, the new-home median was $198 and the existing-home median was $226, which Zillow prints as a 12.4 percent discount for the new home. Miami ran the other direction: $394 for new homes and $321 for existing homes.

This file is Zillow’s July price per square foot, new construction against existing homes. August new-home sales are the separate Census and HUD release. August existing-home sales are the separate resale comparison.

A buyer, a seller, or an owner in Hernando, Citrus, Pasco, Hillsborough, or Pinellas reads the Tampa row as the metropolitan figure that contains those four counties. It is not a Spring Hill price, a Lecanto price, or a Clearwater price. Citrus and Marion are outside this metro table. The house coupon in force is the October 1 Freddie Mac survey: 7.28 percent on the 30-year fixed and 6.60 percent on the 15-year fixed, already briefed with the September jobs release. Statewide context stays on Florida markets. A purchase or a sale sits on residential. A written quote starts on the mortgage page.

What the comparison measures

Zillow compares its median sale price per square foot for newly built homes with the same measure for existing homes. Single-family houses and condos are combined. The price per square foot reflects the homes that sold in each group. Zillow’s own note says it is not a like-for-like comparison of identical homes. A new house and an older house can differ in lot size, finish, and location inside the same metro, and this median does not hold those constant.

The national pair is July. The share of sales is the twelve months ending July 2026, set next to 2019. Zillow describes new homes as the better value per square foot nationwide and in one-third of major metro areas. On the table it published, the new-home median sits below the existing-home median in 17 metros that print both figures.

From 2018 through 2024, new homes sold for more per square foot than existing homes in 77 of 84 months. The premium peaked at $25 a square foot in November 2022. Over the past 19 months, new homes sold at a discount in 17 of those months. The deepest discount in that stretch was June, at $12 a square foot. July’s $7 is a smaller discount than June’s, and it is still on the discount side of the comparison.

Kara Ng, a senior economist at Zillow, said buyers who assume new homes are out of their price range may be surprised at what they find, and that buyers are in the best position to negotiate where the most new homes have been built.

The national $7

A median of $205 against a median of $212 is $7, which is 3.3 percent of the existing-home figure. That percent is arithmetic on the two printed medians. It is the national result for July, across the homes Zillow counted as new and the homes it counted as existing.

Zillow’s explanation is supply, not the size of the house. New homes being built now are typically smaller homes on smaller lots. Zillow says that shift, on its own, would tend to raise the price per square foot, because a kitchen and a bath get spread over fewer feet. The discount printed in July landed anyway. Zillow reads that as builders cutting prices and offering incentives where standing inventory is competing for buyers.

Zillow cites the Census Bureau’s new-home supply at 9.6 months in July 2026. Census and HUD’s August sales release, CB26-155, published September 24, prints July’s months’ supply at 9.0 and August’s at 8.5. The August stock was 483,000 houses. The August sales pace was 684,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in August was $393,700, and the average was $478,700. Those Census figures are the price of a new single-family house and the months of supply at the sales rate. They are not a price per square foot, and they are not Zillow’s $205.

On the resale side, Zillow says inventory remains 17.1 percent below its pre-pandemic level. NAR’s August existing-home sales, in the resale comparison, were a 3.98 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, with 1.62 million homes for sale and a 4.9-month supply. Zillow’s 17.1 percent and NAR’s 4.9 months are different inventories. One is a level compared with the years before the pandemic. The other is August’s for-sale count divided by August’s sales rate.

Zillow’s account of the resale side is that many existing-home sellers hold equity built during the pandemic and monthly payments locked in when mortgage rates were around 3 percent, and that a seller who does not get an acceptable offer can relist the house as a rental. That is a national description of why a resale price per square foot can sit above a new-home price per square foot. It is not a statement that a particular house in Hernando, Citrus, Pasco, Hillsborough, or Pinellas carries a 3 percent mortgage.

Tampa’s gap is $28 a square foot

Tampa’s July medians are $198 for new construction and $226 for existing homes. The difference is $28 a square foot. Zillow prints that gap as a 12.4 percent discount, and $28 divided by $226 is 12.4 percent. On 2,000 square feet, $28 is $56,000. That product is arithmetic on the two metro medians and a stated size. It is not the price difference between two houses on a street in Spring Hill, Wesley Chapel, Tampa, or Clearwater, and it is not a median sale price for the metro.

Zillow groups Tampa with Austin and Raleigh as markets where the new-home discount is deep. Austin’s new-home median was $184 against $228 for existing homes, a 19.3 percent discount and a $44 gap. Raleigh’s medians were $188 and $219, and Zillow prints the discount as 14.4 percent. San Diego’s medians were $498 and $582, also a 14.4 percent discount on Zillow’s figure, a $84 gap on much higher prices. Tampa’s 12.4 percent is the Florida case Zillow names in that group.

The Tampa metropolitan area in this table is the same four-county area the August unemployment briefing and the August permits briefing use: Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas. The $198 and the $226 are metro medians. A house in one of those counties can sit far from either number. The county guides remain the local files: Hernando, Pasco, Hillsborough, and Pinellas.

The other Florida metros on the same table

Orlando’s July medians were $214 for new homes and $220 for existing homes. The gap is $6 a square foot, which is 2.7 percent of the existing-home median. Jacksonville’s were $198 and $204, also a $6 gap, 2.9 percent of $204. Tampa’s $28 gap is the wide one among these three. Orlando and Jacksonville still print the new home below the existing home, by a few dollars a foot.

Miami’s July medians were $394 for new homes and $321 for existing homes. The new home is $73 a square foot higher. That is 22.7 percent of the existing-home median. Zillow’s pattern for scarce new construction is a premium, and Miami is the Florida row that prints one. The deepest premiums Zillow names are the New York metro, $727 against $441, which Zillow prints as 64.9 percent; Cleveland, $223 against $148, 50.7 percent; Milwaukee, $316 against $216, 46 percent; and Detroit, $239 against $165, 44.5 percent.

A buyer comparing Tampa with Miami is comparing two Florida metros that sit on opposite sides of this table. Tampa’s new-home median is below its existing-home median. Miami’s new-home median is above its existing-home median, and both Miami figures are well above both Tampa figures. Neither pair is a Citrus figure or a Marion figure. Those counties are not rows on this table.

How large a share of sales the new homes were

Nationally, newly built homes were 12.6 percent of home sales over the twelve months ending July 2026. That is the same share Zillow prints for 2019. The share peaked at 16.7 percent in 2023. The national mix of new and existing sales is back at the 2019 share, while the price-per-square-foot comparison has moved from a premium to a $7 discount.

The share is not the same market to market. San Antonio was 37.1 percent over those twelve months, against 24.2 percent in 2019. Raleigh was 33.6 percent, against 32.8 percent. Austin was 31.1 percent, against 28.8 percent. Hartford, at the other end, was 2.0 percent.

Florida’s four rows:

• Tampa: new homes were 13.6 percent of sales, against 16.1 percent in 2019. That is 2.5 percentage points lower, and it is a little above the national 12.6 percent.
• Orlando: 19.8 percent, against 24.0 percent in 2019.
• Jacksonville: 22.6 percent, against 23.3 percent in 2019.
• Miami: 3.7 percent, against 7.1 percent in 2019.

Tampa’s discount arrived while new homes were a smaller share of local sales than in 2019. Orlando and Jacksonville also gave back share and still printed small discounts. Miami’s new-home share fell from 7.1 percent to 3.7 percent, and the new-home price per square foot sits above the existing-home price. A high share and a discount often travel together in Zillow’s Sun Belt examples. They do not have to. Houston’s new homes were 30.7 percent of sales, up from 24.0 percent in 2019, and the new-home median was $164 against $161 for existing homes. That is a large new-home share with the new home a few dollars a foot above the existing home.

Texas is where Zillow says the new-home share grew. San Antonio’s share is up 12.9 percentage points from 2019. Dallas is up 7 points, from 18.9 percent to 25.8 percent, with July medians of $175 for new homes and $195 for existing homes. Houston is up 6.8 points. The markets where new construction lost the most share since 2019, on Zillow’s list, are New Orleans, down 17.7 percentage points, Baltimore down 5.8, and Atlanta down 5.7.

A square foot, a sale price, and a mortgage

Three official or published prices can sit on a desk in the same week, and they answer three questions. Zillow’s $205 and $212 are July medians per square foot. Census’s $393,700 is the August median sales price of a new single-family house in the national sample, and $478,700 is the average. NAR’s August file is a count of existing-home sales and a count of listings, at 3.98 million and 1.62 million, not a national price per square foot. The July House Price Index rose 0.3 percent on the month and 2.6 percent on the year. That index follows the same houses when they sell again. A new house with one sale is not yet a repeat sale.

The October 1 survey at 7.28 percent is later than a July closing. A house that sold in July was financed, if it was financed, at the coupon on that contract. A buyer writing an offer this week uses a quote dated after October 1. Zillow says builders have been offering incentives, including rate buydowns, where inventory is competing. A buydown changes the payment for the period it covers. The payment after it ends is a different number, and it belongs on the written quote. The mortgage page is where that quote starts.

Florida authorized 13,980 housing units in August, 12.8 percent below July, in the building-permits briefing. Zillow says permitting has slowed and reads that as a thinner pipeline ahead. The permit count is authorizations. The price per square foot is what sold in July. A slower permit month does not reprice the July medians.

What a buyer, a seller, and an owner do with it

For a buyer in the Tampa metro, the table says the new homes that sold in July had a lower median price per square foot than the existing homes that sold. The useful next step is the specific house: the contract price, the square feet on the plan, what is included, the CDD or association, and whether any incentive is a lower price or a temporary payment. A $198 metro median does not set the offer. The comps on that street do. Residential buying is the purchase. The Florida home buying guide is the process. An appraisal is the value on that address.

For a seller of an existing house in the same metro, the existing-home median printed higher, at $226. That is a description of July’s sales, not a list price. A builder who can buy down a rate changes the payment a buyer puts next to the resale. The list price still comes from the comps and the condition of the house, which is the subject of the pricing guide. Home selling is the listing.

For an owner deciding whether to sell or keep the house, Zillow’s rental point is a national description of one option sellers have used. A rent on a particular street is not in this table. The square-foot medians do not say what the house would rent for, and they do not say what it would sell for next month.

The through-line

In July 2026, Zillow’s national median was $205 per square foot for newly built homes and $212 for existing homes. New homes had carried a premium in 77 of 84 months from 2018 through 2024, peaking at $25 in November 2022. Over the past 19 months the comparison has been a discount in 17 months, and June’s discount was $12. July’s is $7.

Tampa was $198 against $226, a 12.4 percent gap, with new homes at 13.6 percent of sales over the year through July, down from 16.1 percent in 2019. Orlando was $214 against $220. Jacksonville was $198 against $204. Miami was $394 against $321. Nationally, new homes were 12.6 percent of sales, the same share as 2019, after a 2023 peak of 16.7 percent.

Census’s August new-home file is a different measure: a 684,000 sales pace, a $393,700 median price, and an 8.5-month supply. NAR’s August existing-home file is a 3.98 million pace and a 4.9-month supply. The coupon for an offer this week is the October 1 survey at 7.28 percent.

Dates already on the calendar

• FOMC minutes of the September 15–16 meeting: Wednesday, October 7, 2026, 2:00 p.m. Eastern.
• Freddie Mac PMMS: Thursday, October 8, 2026. The October 1 survey, at 7.28 percent and 6.60 percent, is the weekly average in force until that release.
• September existing-home sales: NAR, Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 10:00 a.m. Eastern.
• Consumer Price Index for September: Wednesday, October 14, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
• September housing starts: Census and HUD, Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
• September new-home sales: Census and HUD, Tuesday, October 27, 2026, 10:00 a.m. Eastern.
• FOMC meeting: October 27–28. The statement is due at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on October 28.

Sources: Zillow Research, “In One-Third of Major Markets, New Homes Cost Less Per Square Foot Than Existing Homes,” Kara Ng, September 29, 2026, and the Zillow Group news release of the same date (national medians $205 new and $212 existing in July 2026; premium in 77 of 84 months from 2018 to 2024, peaking at $25 per square foot in November 2022; discount in 17 of the past 19 months, deepest at $12 in June; new homes 12.6 percent of sales over the twelve months ending July 2026, matching 2019, after a 16.7 percent peak in 2023; Tampa $198 and $226, 12.4 percent, share 13.6 percent versus 16.1 percent in 2019; Orlando $214 and $220, share 19.8 percent versus 24.0 percent; Jacksonville $198 and $204, share 22.6 percent versus 23.3 percent; Miami $394 and $321, share 3.7 percent versus 7.1 percent; Austin $184 and $228, 19.3 percent, share 31.1 percent versus 28.8 percent; Raleigh $188 and $219, 14.4 percent, share 33.6 percent versus 32.8 percent; San Diego $498 and $582, 14.4 percent; New York $727 and $441, 64.9 percent; Cleveland $223 and $148, 50.7 percent; Milwaukee $316 and $216, 46 percent; Detroit $239 and $165, 44.5 percent; San Antonio share 37.1 percent versus 24.2 percent; Dallas $175 and $195, share 25.8 percent versus 18.9 percent; Houston $164 and $161, share 30.7 percent versus 24.0 percent; Hartford share 2.0 percent; New Orleans share down 17.7 percentage points from 2019, Baltimore down 5.8, Atlanta down 5.7; resale inventory 17.1 percent below the pre-pandemic level; methodology: median sale price per square foot, single-family homes and condos combined, not a like-for-like comparison). Census Bureau new-home supply as cited by Zillow at 9.6 months for July 2026. Census/HUD Monthly New Residential Sales, August 2026, CB26-155, only as already briefed (July months’ supply 9.0, August 8.5, sales 684,000, for sale 483,000, median $393,700, average $478,700). NAR August existing-home sales only as already briefed (3.98 million, 1.62 million for sale, 4.9-month supply). Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey as of October 1, 2026, only as already briefed.

For help reading a Hernando, Citrus, Pasco, Hillsborough, or Pinellas purchase or sale against this price-per-square-foot comparison and a current written quote, contact Bridge Point Business & Real Estate Advisors at 352-515-0226 or request a consultation.